Changing Conditions and Patterns in the Arctic Region: An Evaluation in the Energy, Logistics and Security Triangle

International Relations Council: XIV. Security Academy

December 18-22 2019, Kastamonu

The Arctic Region has approximately 13% of undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of undiscovered natural gas reserves in the world. These hydrocarbon reserves are seen as an opportunity that can significantly mitigate problems related to energy security of Arctic and non-Arctic states and create economic opportunities. Since the annual average temperature increases in the polar regions are two times higher than other geographies, these resources in the Arctic Region have become accessible as a result of climate change, and new sea routes have emerged. Consequently, the Arctic Region has become a key area for countries aiming resource diversification to ensure energy security. When the literature for the Arctic Region is examined, it is concluded that there are certain challenges and opportunities in the Arctic Region in the fields of energy, logistics and defence-security. Considering the conditions in the Arctic Region from the perspective of energy dimension, it is seen that the regional states, in line with their energy security efforts and economic interests, have a motivation to operate over the hydrocarbon reserves that have become accessible. On the other hand, recently emerging sea routes and the debates over the international status of these routes become prominent from the logistics perspective. Besides, the analysis on defence-security dimension reveals the concerns regarding, continental shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone problems in the process of extracting hydrocarbon reserves in the region, sovereignty rights and territorial disputes between the Arctic countries, tensions between Russia and other NATO member states, and the concerns over Russia’s rising military presence in the Arctic as well as the doubts caused by China’s attempts to engage in the region. As a result, the study proposes that as the Arctic Region becomes more accessible, certain opportunities emerge in the fields of energy and logistics while international risks arise in the context of defence and security. Moreover, human security and environmental security issues such as migration, loss of habitats, and preservation of local culture and lifestyles come to the fore as a result of climate change and increasing industrial activities. In this sense, it is emphasized that the implementation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) should be improved to resolve the disputes regarding defence and security issues, the Arctic Council should take an active role to find a solution for defence and security problems, and bilateral and multilateral agreements should be made as crisis management mechanisms in the Arctic Region.Webpage

Rising Significance of Arctic Region: A 9-Dimensional-Assessment over PESTEL-DEL Analysis

XI. International Uludağ Congress on International Relations

October 14-15 2019, Bursa

In recent years, the importance of research and scientific studies related to the Arctic Region has increased rapidly. The main reason behind this trend is regarded as the impacts of climate change. With the rising global temperatures and the melting of glaciers, the sharing of natural resources (especially conventional oil and natural gas resources) in the region turns into an international struggle and conflict of interest, including all relevant actors, such as national and international energy companies, as well as littoral states and other countries. Another important issue is the new logistics routes emerging as a result of the rapidly melting glaciers. These routes create opportunities particularly for export-intensive developing economies. Moreover, considering the increasing competitive environment and geopolitical position, defence and security issues in the region are gaining importance. This study provides 9-dimensional-assessment within the framework of PESTEL-DEL analysis regarding the current situation of the Arctic Region, which has become more important than ever.Webpage

A literature Review for Turkey’s Arctic Roadmap: Opportunities and Challenges

III. National Polar Science Workshop

September 5-6 2019, Ankara

The Arctic Region has become an increasingly important region, especially in the last decades, as a result of the international struggle to use and share the oil and natural gas resources that have become available in the region due to rapid increase of temperatures, climate change and melting of the glaciers. Many actors, such as littoral states and national and international energy companies closely follow the developments regarding the oil and natural gas resources in the region, new logistics routes, international trade, new strategies for developments in the region, and defence and security issues. Turkey also take attempts to engage in the region. Accordingly, a comprehensive literature review has been conducted to analyse the challenges and opportunities so that Turkey can take a role in the Arctic Region. The study examines over 100 scientific pieces related to the Arctic Region. In the study, it is seen that “political” and “economic” parameters are discussed most frequently. In addition, it is concluded that the parameters regarding “legal”, “defence-security”, “environmental” and “energy” issues are also important. Moreover, “socio-cultural” and “technological” should also be taken into consideration. It is also determined that opportunities arise in the fields of economy, energy and logistics while challenges are emphasized more in “political”, “legal” and “environmental” fields. In this regard, the framework of Turkey’s Arctic roadmap is built upon political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental, legal, defence-security, energy and logistics related issues.Webpage